Saturday bases

TheNatural+ · Jul 12, 2003

(All plays risk 1 unit)

2-1 +1.34 Units YTD

Philadelphia/NY Mets Under 8.5 +109 1/1.09

Most books have resisted moving this total to nine despite the majority on the over. There are trends that favor the over in this game but after a few shaky starts by Seo, I feel he pitches a solid game today. Seo has a 2.76 ERA in 5 day starts and allowed only 1 ER in 6 innings in his first start vs. Philly. The Mets lineup does not strike fear into anybody and Duckworth should control the Mets bats.

TheNatural+ · Jul 12, 2003

One other day game for me today -

Baltimore/Oakland Over 10 +105 1/1.05

After a low-scoring affair last night, both teams will welcome hitting against the opponet's #5 starter today. Baltimore really smacks left-handed pitching scoring 5.80 RPG away vs. lefty and also 6.55 RPG away during the day. 71% of Baltimore's road games as a dog have gone over. Oakland will put up their fair share of runs vs. Hentgen. 60% of Oakland's home games vs. righties have gone over.

TheNatural+ · Jul 12, 2003

Found one more day game. Another total.

Anaheim/Minny UNDER 8.5 +104 1/1.04

Radke's career numbers vs. Anaheim are excellent - 11-4 1.72 ERA. At Edison Field he is 6-1 1.38 ERA. He has excelled away this year with a 3.27 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. I'd take Minny except they have lost 6 in a row and Washburn should finally put together a solid outing against Minny who scores only 3.91 RPG on the road vs. a lefy starter. Pitcher's duel in this one.

Hope everyone is a winner today!

TheNatural+ · Jul 12, 2003

Guys,

2 games for tonight:

Milwaukee -135 1/.74

The pitching disparity makes this a play. Franklin has been very consistent and Cincy lineup is weak vs. lefties. Haynes has all kinds of trouble with left-handers and Milwaukee has plenty of lefties that can get to him and Sexson has had success vs. Haynes as well.

Texas -114 1/.88

I am expecting (hoping) Valdes will follow up a solid start with another. Lima has looked great so far but Arlington seems like a logical place for him to come back to reality.

Get em tonight fellas!

TheNatural+ · Jul 12, 2003

I should preface this by telling you that I rarely go against a team that that is on a winning streak of three or more, but I see way too much value with the Dodgers so I am going to go ahead and add...

LA Dodgers +141 1/1.41

Ashby has excellent numbers vs. righties but it is lefties that are hurting him. Well, Colorado has two lefties to be concerned with - Helton & Walker. Helton is 5/22 lifetime vs. Ashby with only one homer. Walker is 1/16 lifetime with 0 homers. LA hitters have had success vs. Jennings and I have this game at a toss-up at best. Hard not to pull the trigger on +141..so I did.

SSI · Jul 12, 2003

it is a reach if you go against the rockies at home this year, they are outstanding and a totally different team (34-19), and in this one they even have the pitching advantage, jennings has been hot as well..

TheNatural+ · Jul 12, 2003

SSI - I know, I hear ya. I am also going against the Rockies on a winning streak. I do this for entertainment and sometimes I just make a play that I have a feeling on. I also like to "go against the grain", and this applies here also.

I have noticed you are on quite a run, keep up the good work and good luck to you.

SSI · Jul 12, 2003

i understand what your saying, i used to do many of the same things,, i stopped doing that and its been quite profitable,, i hope you do well.. yes my run has been excellent since june 8th,, keep posting plays after the break, i enjoy the banter..